Respect and the forthcoming General Election.

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There is a deal of speculation in the press about the possibility of an early election. Both this coming autumn and next May are being touted as possible dates on which Gordon Brown may call an early poll.

Respect activists need to take a measured but serious view of this possibility. Gordon Brown has a lead in the polls. Part of this is produced by the simple fact that he is not Tony Blair. Anyone taking over after such an unpopular and long-serving prime minister is bound to profit by comparision.

Brown has made some, mostly superficial, moves to bolster the feeling that he is different from Blair. Blair holidayed abroad so Brown holidays at home. Blair never cut short a holiday to deal with a 'national emergency' so Brown returns to deal with foot and mouth.

But on substantial issues Brown is following the Blairite course. The housing intiative did not fulfill the hopes of some council house camapigners. The Dafur intiative is being vetoed by the African nations insistance on a an African based UN force.

On the crucial issue of Iraq Brown started off saying he was not making a priority of meeting Bush but then scurried across the Atlantic when his lead was jerked. The proposed announcement over Iraq in October has yet to be squared with the US where leading neo-cons are making daily attacks on the idea of any British withdrawal. But the military situation in Iraq has become so untenable for the British that establishment opinion is now moving towards withdrawal. Brown would benefit from any such announcement~at least in the period between withdrawal from Iraq and a further, inevitable, recommitment to the broader 'war on terror' in Afghanistan or against Iran.

Nevertheless the 'Brown bounce' is still largely, but not exclusively, the product of novelty and press gulibilty on the one hand and the decline in David Cameron's popularity on the other. Cameron's difficulties arise from the same circumstances that have beset every Tory leader since John Major. The majority of the electorate are to the left of the government. The Tories can only acknowledge this fact in superficial ways and, even then, their hardline, right wing base revolts if the appearence of moderation goes too far. This is what has happened to Cameron over grammer schools.

Brown can expect his honeymoon with the press to end in a very similar way eventually. Nevertheless, we cannot ignore the fact that Cameron's declining popularity and Brown's honeymoon with the press may prove durable enough for Brown to call an early election. This is not a bad situation for Respect.

On the one hand it shows the basic good sense of many working class voters: they won't vote Tory despite their dislike of the New Labour government. And, as the Shadwell by-election victory showed, Respect can not only win but it can hold on to its support even after it has won and in the most difficult circumstances. But that requires serious preparatory work in advance of an election.

Respect groups should work now to establish the kind of profile that can be quickly turned into an effective general election campaign. A series of national leaflets on specific topics are being produced by the national office. The environment leaflet is already on the website and housing leaflet is just being completed. Transport, Youth and Social Services and NHS leaflets are on their way. Student material is in preparation for the beginning of term. In London the very popular GLA gatefold leaflet will help lift the Respect profile.

Now is the time to accumulate funds. In London a special letter asking for funds for the GLA is proving successful. It could be modified for use in other areas for the general election. The recent Ken Loach film show raised £1,000 in London and similar events in the regions (even without Ken!) have proven successful. Now is also the time to be thinking about which constituencies Respect might contest and to make preliminary soundings about possible candidates.

There is a higher level of industrial unrest than for many years and contacts with the trade unions are essential for support, possible candidates and more general preparation for the election. A recent Fighting Unions social in Preston, in which Respect members were central to the organisation, brought together 70 shop stewards and union activists from across the city.

Please ring the national office if you would like to discuss these issues further.

In solidarity,

John Rees, Respect national secretary